Objectives
It is critical to implement effective multiple countermeasures to mitigate or retain the spread of pandemic influenza. We propose a mathematical pandemic influenza model to assess the effectiveness of multiple countermeasures implemented in 2009.
Methods
Age-specific parameters, including the transmission rate, the proportion of asymptomatic individuals, the vaccination rate, the social distancing rate, and the antiviral treatment rate are estimated using the least-square method calibrated to the incidence data.
Results
The multiple interventions (intensive vaccination, social distancing, antivrial treatment) were successfully implemented resulting in the dramatic reduction in the total number of incidence.
Conclusion
The model output is sensitive to age-specific parameters and this leads to the fact that a more elaborate age group model should be developed and extensive further studies must be followed.