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Original Article
Transmission parameters of coronavirus disease 2019 in South Asian countries
Mridul Sannyal, Abul Mukid Mohammad Mukaddes
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2022;13(3):191-202.   Published online June 23, 2022
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24171/j.phrp.2021.0234
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Graphical AbstractGraphical Abstract AbstractAbstract PDF
Objectives
This study aimed to estimate the transmission parameters, effective reproduction number, epidemic peak, and future exposure of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in South Asian countries. Methods: A susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-death (SEIRD) model programmed with MATLAB was developed for this purpose. Data were collected (till June 28, 2021) from the official webpage of World Health Organization, along with the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University. The model was simulated to measure the primary transmission parameters. The reproduction number was measured using the next-generating matrix method. Results: The primary transmission rate followed an exponential Gaussian process regression. India showed the highest transmission rate (0.037) and Bhutan the lowest (0.023). The simulated epidemic peaks matched the reported peaks, thereby validating the SEIRD model. The simulation was carried out up to December 31, 2020 using the reported data till June 9, 2020. Conclusion: The information gathered in this research will be helpful for authorities to prevent the transmission of COVID-19 in the subsequent wave or in the future.

Citations

Citations to this article as recorded by  
  • MODIFIED SEIRD MODEL: A NOVEL SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH IN MODELLING THE SPREAD OF COVID-19 IN MALAYSIA DURING THE PRE-VACCINATION PERIOD
    Norsyahidah Zulkarnain, Nurul Farahain Mohammad, Ibrahim Shogar
    IIUM Engineering Journal.2023; 24(2): 159.     CrossRef

PHRP : Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives