<sec>
<title>Objectives</title>
<p>This study presents the development and validation of a risk assessment program of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). This program was developed by the Korean government (Animal and Plant Quarantine Agency) and a private corporation (Korea Telecom, KT), using a national database (Korean animal health integrated system, KAHIS).</p></sec>
<sec>
<title>Methods</title>
<p>Our risk assessment program was developed using the multilayer perceptron method using R Language. HPAI outbreaks on 544 poultry farms (307 with H5N6, and 237 with H5N8) that had available visit records of livestock-related vehicles amongst the 812 HPAI outbreaks that were confirmed between January 2014 and June 2017 were involved in this study.</p></sec>
<sec>
<title>Results</title>
<p>After 140,000 iterations without drop-out, a model with 3 hidden layers and 10 nodes per layer, were selected. The activation function of the model was hyperbolic tangent. Precision and recall of the test gave F1 measures of 0.41, 0.68 and 0.51, respectively, at validation. The predicted risk values were higher for the “outbreak” (average ± SD, 0.20 ± 0.31) than “non-outbreak” (0.18 ± 0.30) farms (<italic>p</italic> < 0.001).</p></sec>
<sec>
<title>Conclusion</title>
<p>The risk assessment model developed was employed during the epidemics of 2016/2017 (pilot version) and 2017/2018 (complementary version). This risk assessment model enhanced risk management activities by enabling preemptive control measures to prevent the spread of diseases.</p></sec>
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Objectives
This study describes the outbreaks of H5N8 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in Korea during the first wave, from January 16, 2014 through July 25, 2014. Its purpose is to provide a better understanding of the epidemiology of H5N8 HPAI. Methods
Information on the outbreak farms and HPAI positive wild birds was provided by the Animal and Plant Quarantine Agency. The epidemiological investigation sheets for the outbreak farms were examined. Results
During the 7-month outbreak period (January–July 2014), H5N8 HPAI was confirmed in 212 poultry farms, 38 specimens from wild birds (stools, birds found dead or captured). Ducks were the most frequently infected poultry species (159 outbreak farms, 75.0%), and poultry in 67 (31.6%) outbreak farms was asymptomatic. Conclusion
As in the previous four H5N1 epidemics of HPAI that occurred in Korea, this epidemic of H5N8 proved to be associated with migratory birds. Poultry farms in Korea can hardly be free from the risk of HPAI introduced via migratory birds. The best way to overcome this geographical factor is to reinforce biosecurity to prevent exposure of farms, related people, and poultry to the pathogen.
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