Figure 1The trend in the number of HIV-infected Koreans, 1985–2012. The bars are the number of newly diagnosed HIV-infected Koreans, the dotted red line is the cumulative number of HIV-infected Koreans, and the yellow triangle line is the number of AIDS deaths per year.
Figure 2Comparison of the reported and forecasted numbers of HIV cases in Korea from 1985 through 2012. Diamond line: actual number, dot line: forecasted number, band: 95% confidence interval of forecasted number. (a) The cumulative number of HIV-infected Koreans, (b) the number of newly diagnosed HIV-infected Koreans, (c) the number of newly diagnosed HIV infected male Koreans, and (d) the number of newly diagnosed HIV infected female Koreans.
Table 1The forecasted number of HIV-infected Koreans in Korea in 2013–2017
Characteristics |
Model |
Forecast
|
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
Cumulative HIV cases |
ARIMA (1,2,3) |
10,372 (10,308–10,437) |
11,425 (11,275–11,574) |
12,470 (12,170–12,770) |
13,595 (13,058–14,131) |
14,724 (13,893–15,555) |
People living with HIV |
ARIMA (1,2,2) |
8,615 (8,533–8,698) |
9,508 (9,325–9,691) |
10,438 (10,075–10,802) |
11,391 (10,768–12,013) |
12,355 (11,404–13,306) |
Newly-diagnosed HIV cases |
ARIMA (2,2,1) |
962 (889– 1,036) |
992 (882–1,102) |
1,026 (856–1,196) |
1,108 (867–1,349) |
1,111 (805–1,418) |
Sex
|
Man |
ARIMA (1,2,2) |
902 (838–966) |
934 (845–1,022) |
969 (811–1,127) |
1050 (801–1,299) |
1055 (723–1,388) |
Woman |
ARIMA (2,1,2) |
60 (48–72) |
58 (47–70) |
57 (43–70) |
58 (43–73) |
56 (39–72) |
Age
|
<20 |
ARIMA (1,2,1) |
44 (37–51) |
42 (34–51) |
51 (39–64) |
54 (39–69) |
56 (38–74) |
20–29 |
ARIMA (1,1,1) |
302 (260–344) |
318 (254–382) |
369 (276–463) |
401 (282–521) |
414 (273–554) |
30–39 |
ARIMA (1,2,0) |
205 (169–242) |
200 (143–258) |
212 (111–312) |
214 (73–355) |
204 (23–385) |
40–49 |
ARIMA (2,2,0) |
185 (151–218) |
203 (161–245) |
155 (96–213) |
188 (96–279) |
190 (85–296) |
50–59 |
ARIMA (2,2,0) |
148 (126–171) |
153 (123–183) |
163 (117–208) |
173 (107–239) |
172 (92–251) |
≥60 |
ARIMA (2,2,0) |
78 (58–97) |
76 (44–108) |
76 (31–122) |
78 (13–143) |
75 (0–157) |
Screening site
|
Public institution |
ARIMA (2,1,2) |
145 (99–192) |
134 (75–193) |
135 (65–205) |
153 (65–241) |
164 (60–269) |
Hospital |
ARIMA (1,1,2) |
714 (628–799) |
743 (626–860) |
780 (600–960) |
829 (568–1089) |
830 (499–1161) |
Blood bank |
ARIMA (1,1,1) |
103 (82–125) |
115 (85–144) |
111 (72–149) |
126 (81–173) |
117 (65–169) |