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Original Articles
- Comparing Seasonal Pattern of Laboratory Confirmed Cases of Pertussis with Clinically Suspected Cases
- Golam Reza Ghorbani, Seyed Mohsen Zahraei, Mahmood Moosazadeh, Mahdi Afshari, Fahimeh Doosti
- Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2016;7(2):131-137. Published online April 30, 2016
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2016.02.004
- 2,725 View
- 19 Download
- 12 Crossref
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Abstract
PDF - Objectives
During recent decades, there has been limited attention on the seasonal pattern of pertussis within a high vaccine coverage population. This study aimed to compare the seasonal patterns of clinical suspected pertussis cases with those of laboratory confirmed cases in Iran.
Methods
The current study was conducted using time series methods. Time variables included months and seasons during 2011–2013. The effects of seasons and months on the incidence of pertussis were estimated using analysis of variance or Kruskal–Wallis.
Results
The maximum average incidence of clinically confirmed pertussis was 23.3 in July (p = 0.04), but the maximum incidence of clinical suspected pertussis was 115.7 in May (p = 0.6). The maximum seasonal incidences of confirmed and clinical pertussis cases were reported in summer (average: 12, p = 0.004), and winter (average: 108.1; p = 0.4), respectively.
Conclusion
The present study showed that the seasonal pattern of laboratory confirmed pertussis cases is highly definite and different from the pattern of clinical suspected cases. -
Citations
Citations to this article as recorded by
- Pertussis seasonal variation in Northern Vietnam: the evidence from a tertiary hospital
Nhung TH Pham, Quyen TT Bui, Dien M Tran, Mattias Larsson, Mai P Pham, Linus Olson
BMC Public Health.2024;[Epub] CrossRef - Population-Based Study of Pertussis Incidence and Risk Factors among Persons >50 Years of Age, Australia
Rodney Pearce, Jing Chen, Ken L. Chin, Adrienne Guignard, Leah-Anne Latorre, C. Raina MacIntyre, Brittany Schoeninger, Sumitra Shantakumar
Emerging Infectious Diseases.2024;[Epub] CrossRef - Bordetella pertussis in School-Age Children, Adolescents, and Adults: A Systematic Review of Epidemiology, Burden, and Mortality in the Middle East
Denis Macina, Keith E. Evans
Infectious Diseases and Therapy.2021; 10(2): 719. CrossRef - Pertussis epidemiology and effect of vaccination among diagnosed children at Vietnam, 2015‐2018
Nhung T. H. Pham, Nhan D. T. Le, Ngai K. Le, Khoa D. Nguyen, Mattias Larsson, Linus Olson, Dien M. Tran
Acta Paediatrica.2020; 109(12): 2685. CrossRef - Spatial distribution of vaccine-preventable diseases in central Iran in 2015–2018: A GIS-based study
Abolfazl Mohammadbeigi, Abedin Saghafipour, Nahid Jesri, Fatemeh Zahra Tarkhan, Moharram Karami Jooshin
Heliyon.2020; 6(9): e05102. CrossRef - The comparative performance of wavelet‐based outbreak detector, exponential weighted moving average, and Poisson regression‐based methods in detection of pertussis outbreaks in Iranian infants: A simulation‐based study
Yousef Alimohamadi, Seyed Mohsen Zahraei, Manoochehr Karami, Mehdi Yaseri, Mojtaba Lotfizad, Kourosh Holakouie‐Naieni
Pediatric Pulmonology.2020; 55(12): 3497. CrossRef - Alarm Thresholds for Pertussis Outbreaks in Iran: National Data Analysis
Yousef Alimohamadi, Seyed Mohsen Zahraei, Manoochehr Karami, Mehdi Yaseri, Mojtaba Lotfizad, Kourosh Holakouie-Naieni
Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives.2020; 11(5): 309. CrossRef - The burden of laboratory-confirmed pertussis in low- and middle-income countries since the inception of the Expanded Programme on Immunisation (EPI) in 1974: a systematic review and meta-analysis
Rudzani Muloiwa, Benjamin M. Kagina, Mark E. Engel, Gregory D. Hussey
BMC Medicine.2020;[Epub] CrossRef - Sommergrippe: Mehr als ein Mythos!
Johannes Bogner
MMW - Fortschritte der Medizin.2019; 161(12): 39. CrossRef - Estimating seasonal variation in Australian pertussis notifications from 1991 to 2016: evidence of spring to summer peaks
R. N. F. Leong, J. G. Wood, R. M. Turner, A. T. Newall
Epidemiology and Infection.2019;[Epub] CrossRef - Time series modeling of pertussis incidence in China from 2004 to 2018 with a novel wavelet based SARIMA-NAR hybrid model
Yongbin Wang, Chunjie Xu, Zhende Wang, Shengkui Zhang, Ying Zhu, Juxiang Yuan, Lei Lin
PLOS ONE.2018; 13(12): e0208404. CrossRef - Identification of Etiologic Agents of the Pertussis-like Syndrome in Children by Real-time PCR Method
Shima Mahmoudi, Maryam Banar, Babak Pourakbari, Hediyeh Sadat Alavi, Hamid Eshaghi, Alireza Aziz Ahari, Setareh Mamishi
Prague Medical Report.2018; 119(1): 61. CrossRef
- Pertussis seasonal variation in Northern Vietnam: the evidence from a tertiary hospital
- Forecasting the Number of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infections in the Korean Population Using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model
- Hye-Kyung Yu, Na-Young Kim, Sung Soon Kim, Chaeshin Chu, Mee-Kyung Kee
- Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2013;4(6):358-362. Published online December 31, 2013
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2013.10.009
- 2,818 View
- 17 Download
- 24 Crossref
-
Abstract
PDF
- Objectives
From the introduction of HIV into the Republic of Korea in 1985 through 2012, 9,410 HIV-infected Koreans have been identified. Since 2000, there has been a sharp increase in newly diagnosed HIV-infected Koreans. It is necessary to estimate the changes in HIV infection to plan budgets and to modify HIV/AIDS prevention policy. We constructed autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to forecast the number of HIV infections from 2013 to 2017.
Methods
HIV infection data from 1985 to 2012 were used to fit ARIMA models. Akaike Information Criterion and Schwartz Bayesian Criterion statistics were used to evaluate the constructed models. Estimation was via the maximum likelihood method. To assess the validity of the proposed models, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) between the number of observed and fitted HIV infections from 1985 to 2012 was calculated. Finally, the fitted ARIMA models were used to forecast the number of HIV infections from 2013 to 2017.
Results
The fitted number of HIV infections was calculated by optimum ARIMA (2,2,1) model from 1985–2012. The fitted number was similar to the observed number of HIV infections, with a MAPE of 13.7%. The forecasted number of new HIV infections in 2013 was 962 (95% confidence interval (CI): 889–1,036) and in 2017 was 1,111 (95% CI: 805–1,418). The forecasted cumulative number of HIV infections in 2013 was 10,372 (95% CI: 10,308–10,437) and in 2017 was14,724 (95% CI: 13,893–15,555) by ARIMA (1,2,3).
Conclusion
Based on the forecast of the number of newly diagnosed HIV infections and the current cumulative number of HIV infections, the cumulative number of HIV-infected Koreans in 2017 would reach about 15,000. -
Citations
Citations to this article as recorded by- Intelligent Health Care and Diseases Management System: Multi-Day-Ahead Predictions of COVID-19
Ahed Abugabah, Farah Shahid
Mathematics.2023; 11(4): 1051. CrossRef - Prevalence of HIV in Kazakhstan 2010–2020 and Its Forecasting for the Next 10 Years
Kamilla Mussina, Shirali Kadyrov, Ardak Kashkynbayev, Sauran Yerdessov, Gulnur Zhakhina, Yesbolat Sakko, Amin Zollanvari, Abduzhappar Gaipov
HIV/AIDS - Research and Palliative Care.2023; Volume 15: 387. CrossRef - Integration models of demand forecasting and inventory control for coconut sugar using the ARIMA and EOQ modification methods
Siti Wardah, Nunung Nurhasanah, Wiwik Sudarwati
Jurnal Sistem dan Manajemen Industri.2023; 7(2): 127. CrossRef - Deep learning-based forecasting model for COVID-19 outbreak in Saudi Arabia
Ammar H. Elsheikh, Amal I. Saba, Mohamed Abd Elaziz, Songfeng Lu, S. Shanmugan, T. Muthuramalingam, Ravinder Kumar, Ahmed O. Mosleh, F.A. Essa, Taher A. Shehabeldeen
Process Safety and Environmental Protection.2021; 149: 223. CrossRef - Forecasting future HIV infection cases: evidence from Indonesia
Maria Dyah Kurniasari, Andrian Dolfriandra Huruta, Hsiu Ting Tsai, Cheng-Wen Lee
Social Work in Public Health.2021; 36(1): 12. CrossRef - Forecasting Confirmed Malaria Cases in Northwestern Province of Zambia: A Time Series Analysis Using 2014–2020 Routine Data
Dhally M. Menda, Mukumbuta Nawa, Rosemary K. Zimba, Catherine M. Mulikita, Jim Mwandia, Henry Mwaba, Karen Sichinga, Hamidreza Karimi-Sari
Advances in Public Health.2021; 2021: 1. CrossRef - An Adaptive Variational Mode Decomposition Technique with Differential Evolution Algorithm and Its Application Analysis
Yuanxin Wang, Chaoqun Duan
Shock and Vibration.2021; 2021: 1. CrossRef - A comparative study on the prediction of the BP artificial neural network model and the ARIMA model in the incidence of AIDS
Zeming Li, Yanning Li
BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making.2020;[Epub] CrossRef - Hybrid Decomposition Time-Series Forecasting by DirRec Strategy: Electric Load Forecasting Using Machine-Learning
Branislav Vuksanovic, Davoud Rahimi Ardali
International Journal of Computer and Electrical E.2019; 11(1): 1. CrossRef - Exploring an Ensemble of Methods that Combines Fuzzy Cognitive Maps and Neural Networks in Solving the Time Series Prediction Problem of Gas Consumption in Greece
Papageorgiou, Poczeta, Papageorgiou, Gerogiannis, Stamoulis
Algorithms.2019; 12(11): 235. CrossRef - APLIKASI METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING HOLT DAN ARIMA UNTUK MERAMALKAN VOLUNTARY COUNSELING AND TESTING (VCT) ODHA DI PROVINSI JAWA TIMUR
Suci Retno Ningtiyas
The Indonesian Journal of Public Health.2019; 13(2): 158. CrossRef - Research into the high-precision marine integrated navigation method using INS and star sensors based on time series forecasting BPNN
Qiu Ying Wang, Kaiyue Liu, Zhiguo Sun, Minghui Zhang
Optik.2018; 172: 494. CrossRef - Real-time predictive seasonal influenza model in Catalonia, Spain
Luca Basile, Manuel Oviedo de la Fuente, Nuria Torner, Ana Martínez, Mireia Jané, Jeffrey Shaman
PLOS ONE.2018; 13(3): e0193651. CrossRef - Using an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model to Predict the Incidence of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Zibo, China, 2004–2014
Tao Wang, Yunping Zhou, Ling Wang, Zhenshui Huang, Feng Cui, Shenyong Zhai
Japanese Journal of Infectious Diseases.2016; 69(4): 279. CrossRef - Time series analysis of influenza incidence in Chinese provinces from 2004 to 2011
Xin Song, Jun Xiao, Jiang Deng, Qiong Kang, Yanyu Zhang, Jinbo Xu
Medicine.2016; 95(26): e3929. CrossRef - Modelling the prevalence of hepatitis C virus amongst blood donors in Libya: An investigation of providing a preventive strategy
Mohamed A Daw
World Journal of Virology.2016; 5(1): 14. CrossRef - Forecast analysis of any opportunistic infection among HIV positive individuals on antiretroviral therapy in Uganda
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BMC Public Health.2016;[Epub] CrossRef - The Use of an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model for Prediction of the Incidence of Dysentery in Jiangsu, China
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Asia Pacific Journal of Public Health.2016; 28(4): 336. CrossRef - Prevalence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Yiyuan County, China, 2005–2014
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BMC Infectious Diseases.2015;[Epub] CrossRef - Application of an autoregressive integrated moving average model for predicting injury mortality in Xiamen, China
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BMJ Open.2015; 5(12): e008491. CrossRef - Back propagation neural network with adaptive differential evolution algorithm for time series forecasting
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Medicine.2015; 94(20): e837. CrossRef - Changing Patterns of HIV Epidemic in 30 Years in East Asia
S. Pilar Suguimoto, Teeranee Techasrivichien, Patou Masika Musumari, Christina El-saaidi, Bhekumusa Wellington Lukhele, Masako Ono-Kihara, Masahiro Kihara
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Hae-Wol Cho, Chaeshin Chu
Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives.2013; 4(6): 291. CrossRef
- Intelligent Health Care and Diseases Management System: Multi-Day-Ahead Predictions of COVID-19
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