Division of Risk Assessment, Bureau of Public Health Emergency Preparedness, Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency, Cheongju, Korea
© 2022 Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency.
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Ethics Approval
This study did not need approval from the Institutional Review Board or an informed consent procedure because we used country-level open-source data that did not include any individual information.
Conflicts of Interest
The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.
Funding
None.
Availability of Data
The datasets generated and analyzed during the current study are available on the websites of Our World in Data (https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus) and CoVariants.org (https://covariants.org).
Authors’ Contributions
Conceptualization: all authors; Data curation: YK; Formal analysis: YK; Investigation: YK; Methodology: all authors; Project administration: all authors; Supervision: BIK, ST; Visualization: YK; Writing–original draft: YK; Writing–review & editing: all authors.
Country |
Crude CFRs (%) |
Adjusted CFRs (%)a) |
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mean | Median | Minimum | Maximum | Mean | Median | Minimum | Maximum | |
Colombia | 1.83 | 1.97 | 0.24 | 4.45 | 3.02 | 3.15 | 2.03 | 3.87 |
Mexico | 4.35 | 3.27 | 0.47 | 8.41 | 2.96 | 2.87 | 2.19 | 4.59 |
United States | 1.55 | 1.45 | 0.23 | 3.55 | 2.00 | 2.10 | 1.10 | 2.52 |
Latvia | 1.56 | 1.36 | 0.27 | 3.40 | 1.23 | 1.01 | 0.38 | 2.63 |
Lithuania | 0.91 | 1.15 | 0.16 | 1.57 | 0.75 | 0.85 | 0.26 | 1.16 |
Turkey | 0.58 | 0.70 | 0.21 | 0.96 | 0.71 | 0.72 | 0.53 | 0.84 |
Italy | 0.57 | 0.51 | 0.13 | 1.58 | 0.68 | 0.74 | 0.37 | 0.89 |
Greece | 0.90 | 0.90 | 0.22 | 1.91 | 0.62 | 0.66 | 0.26 | 0.91 |
Chile | 0.94 | 0.67 | 0.10 | 3.46 | 0.44 | 0.47 | 0.27 | 0.59 |
Canada | 0.77 | 0.83 | 0.12 | 1.45 | 0.42 | 0.44 | 0.31 | 0.50 |
Estonia | 0.49 | 0.41 | 0.06 | 1.26 | 0.42 | 0.46 | 0.11 | 0.72 |
Spain | 0.68 | 0.36 | 0.06 | 2.20 | 0.42 | 0.44 | 0.20 | 0.58 |
South Korea | 0.65 | 0.79 | 0.05 | 1.45 | 0.37 | 0.42 | 0.05 | 0.63 |
Portugal | 0.25 | 0.22 | 0.06 | 1.14 | 0.36 | 0.40 | 0.13 | 0.58 |
Norway | 0.21 | 0.17 | 0.02 | 1.30 | 0.30 | 0.33 | 0.12 | 0.48 |
Israel | 0.37 | 0.32 | 0.01 | 0.91 | 0.26 | 0.30 | 0.01 | 0.40 |
Australia | 0.34 | 0.22 | 0.03 | 0.94 | 0.26 | 0.25 | 0.08 | 0.46 |
Denmark | 0.18 | 0.15 | 0.04 | 0.59 | 0.26 | 0.32 | 0.04 | 0.44 |
Belgium | 0.28 | 0.27 | 0.05 | 0.63 | 0.26 | 0.27 | 0.09 | 0.36 |
United Kingdom | 0.26 | 0.28 | 0.07 | 0.45 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.14 | 0.30 |
Ireland | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.02 | 0.47 | 0.18 | 0.19 | 0.06 | 0.24 |
Countries are arranged in descending order of mean of adjusted CFR.
CFR, case fatality rate; COVID-19, coronavirus disease 2019.
a)Adjusted for 7-day smoothed new cases (per million), 7-day smoothed new deaths (per million), the predominance of the Omicron variant, reproduction rate, people fully vaccinated (%), stringency index, people aged older than 65 (%), natural logarithm of gross domestic product per capita, extreme poverty rate (%), hospital beds (per thousand), diabetes prevalence (%), cardiovascular deaths (per 100,000), and life expectancy (years).
Variable |
Model 1 |
Model 2 |
Model 3 |
Model 4 |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Coef. | Coef. | Coef. | Coef. | Marginal effect (%)a) | |
Time-varying variables | |||||
7-Day smoothed new cases (per million) | –0.0003*** | –0.0003*** | 99.97 | ||
7-Day smoothed new deaths (per million) | 0.0500*** | 0.0639*** | 106.60 | ||
Predominance of the Omicron variant | –0.0737*** | –0.0596*** | –0.0703*** | –0.0532*** | 94.82 |
Reproduction rate | –0.306*** | –0.256*** | –0.262*** | –0.186*** | 83.03 |
People fully vaccinated (%) | –0.0182*** | –0.0096* | –0.0203*** | –0.0144** | 98.57 |
Stringency index | 0.0001 | 0.0004 | –0.0002 | 0.0000 | 100.00 |
Fixed variables | |||||
People aged older than 65 (%) | 0.0307 | 0.0418* | 0.0338 | 0.0386* | 103.94 |
Natural logarithm of GDP per capita | 0.282 | 0.552 | 0.412 | 0.506 | 165.86 |
Extreme poverty rate (%) | 0.485*** | 0.565*** | 0.491*** | 0.549*** | 173.15 |
Hospital beds (per thousands) | 0.0139 | 0.0593* | 0.0100 | 0.0567* | 105.83 |
Diabetes prevalence (%) | 0.101** | 0.159*** | 0.110** | 0.144*** | 115.49 |
Cardiovascular deaths (per 100,000) | 0.0024 | 0.0022 | 0.0006 | 0.0005 | 100.05 |
Life expectancy (y) | –0.0503 | –0.0689 | –0.0704 | –0.0656 | 93.65 |
The dependent variable is the natural logarithm of the biweekly case fatality rate. Coefficients (coef.) are rounded up to the fourth digit after the decimal point.
GDP, gross domestic product.
a)Changes in the biweekly case fatality rate in percentage by single-unit increases in independent variables.
*p<0.05,
**p<0.01,
***p<0.001.
Variable | Mean | Median | Minimum | Maximum |
---|---|---|---|---|
Time-varying variables | ||||
Biweekly CFR (%) | 0.79 | 0.42 | 0.01 | 8.41 |
7-Day smoothed new cases (per million) | 1,058.8 | 618.0 | 11.8 | 10,968.2 |
7-Day smoothed new deaths (per million) | 3.04 | 2.09 | 0.03 | 21.20 |
Share of the Omicron variant (%) | 52 | 50 | 0 | 100 |
Reproduction rate | 1.09 | 1.06 | 0.46 | 2.33 |
People fully vaccinated (%) | 70.9 | 72.0 | 34.8 | 92.6 |
Stringency index | 47.6 | 47.2 | 11.1 | 80.1 |
Fixed Variables | ||||
People aged older than 65 (%) | 16.1 | 17.0 | 6.9 | 23.0 |
Natural logarithm of GDP per capita | 10.46 | 10.47 | 9.49 | 11.12 |
Extreme poverty rate (%) | 0.85 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 4.50 |
Hospital beds (per thousands) | 3.86 | 2.99 | 1.38 | 12.27 |
Diabetes prevalence (%) | 6.54 | 5.31 | 3.28 | 13.06 |
Cardiovascular deaths (per 100,000) | 148.3 | 122.1 | 86.0 | 350.0 |
Life expectancy (y) | 80.6 | 81.6 | 75.0 | 83.5 |
Country | Crude CFRs (%) |
Adjusted CFRs (%) |
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mean | Median | Minimum | Maximum | Mean | Median | Minimum | Maximum | |
Colombia | 1.83 | 1.97 | 0.24 | 4.45 | 3.02 | 3.15 | 2.03 | 3.87 |
Mexico | 4.35 | 3.27 | 0.47 | 8.41 | 2.96 | 2.87 | 2.19 | 4.59 |
United States | 1.55 | 1.45 | 0.23 | 3.55 | 2.00 | 2.10 | 1.10 | 2.52 |
Latvia | 1.56 | 1.36 | 0.27 | 3.40 | 1.23 | 1.01 | 0.38 | 2.63 |
Lithuania | 0.91 | 1.15 | 0.16 | 1.57 | 0.75 | 0.85 | 0.26 | 1.16 |
Turkey | 0.58 | 0.70 | 0.21 | 0.96 | 0.71 | 0.72 | 0.53 | 0.84 |
Italy | 0.57 | 0.51 | 0.13 | 1.58 | 0.68 | 0.74 | 0.37 | 0.89 |
Greece | 0.90 | 0.90 | 0.22 | 1.91 | 0.62 | 0.66 | 0.26 | 0.91 |
Chile | 0.94 | 0.67 | 0.10 | 3.46 | 0.44 | 0.47 | 0.27 | 0.59 |
Canada | 0.77 | 0.83 | 0.12 | 1.45 | 0.42 | 0.44 | 0.31 | 0.50 |
Estonia | 0.49 | 0.41 | 0.06 | 1.26 | 0.42 | 0.46 | 0.11 | 0.72 |
Spain | 0.68 | 0.36 | 0.06 | 2.20 | 0.42 | 0.44 | 0.20 | 0.58 |
South Korea | 0.65 | 0.79 | 0.05 | 1.45 | 0.37 | 0.42 | 0.05 | 0.63 |
Portugal | 0.25 | 0.22 | 0.06 | 1.14 | 0.36 | 0.40 | 0.13 | 0.58 |
Norway | 0.21 | 0.17 | 0.02 | 1.30 | 0.30 | 0.33 | 0.12 | 0.48 |
Israel | 0.37 | 0.32 | 0.01 | 0.91 | 0.26 | 0.30 | 0.01 | 0.40 |
Australia | 0.34 | 0.22 | 0.03 | 0.94 | 0.26 | 0.25 | 0.08 | 0.46 |
Denmark | 0.18 | 0.15 | 0.04 | 0.59 | 0.26 | 0.32 | 0.04 | 0.44 |
Belgium | 0.28 | 0.27 | 0.05 | 0.63 | 0.26 | 0.27 | 0.09 | 0.36 |
United Kingdom | 0.26 | 0.28 | 0.07 | 0.45 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.14 | 0.30 |
Ireland | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.02 | 0.47 | 0.18 | 0.19 | 0.06 | 0.24 |
Variable | Model 1 |
Model 2 |
Model 3 |
Model 4 |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Coef. | Coef. | Coef. | Coef. | Marginal effect (%) |
|
Time-varying variables | |||||
7-Day smoothed new cases (per million) | –0.0003 |
–0.0003 |
99.97 | ||
7-Day smoothed new deaths (per million) | 0.0500 |
0.0639 |
106.60 | ||
Predominance of the Omicron variant | –0.0737 |
–0.0596 |
–0.0703 |
–0.0532 |
94.82 |
Reproduction rate | –0.306 |
–0.256 |
–0.262 |
–0.186 |
83.03 |
People fully vaccinated (%) | –0.0182 |
–0.0096 |
–0.0203 |
–0.0144 |
98.57 |
Stringency index | 0.0001 | 0.0004 | –0.0002 | 0.0000 | 100.00 |
Fixed variables | |||||
People aged older than 65 (%) | 0.0307 | 0.0418* | 0.0338 | 0.0386* | 103.94 |
Natural logarithm of GDP per capita | 0.282 | 0.552 | 0.412 | 0.506 | 165.86 |
Extreme poverty rate (%) | 0.485 |
0.565 |
0.491 |
0.549 |
173.15 |
Hospital beds (per thousands) | 0.0139 | 0.0593 |
0.0100 | 0.0567 |
105.83 |
Diabetes prevalence (%) | 0.101 |
0.159 |
0.110 |
0.144 |
115.49 |
Cardiovascular deaths (per 100,000) | 0.0024 | 0.0022 | 0.0006 | 0.0005 | 100.05 |
Life expectancy (y) | –0.0503 | –0.0689 | –0.0704 | –0.0656 | 93.65 |
Data from 21 countries for 28 weeks between September 20, 2021 and April 4, 2022. CFR, case fatality rate; GDP, gross domestic product.
Countries are arranged in descending order of mean of adjusted CFR. CFR, case fatality rate; COVID-19, coronavirus disease 2019. Adjusted for 7-day smoothed new cases (per million), 7-day smoothed new deaths (per million), the predominance of the Omicron variant, reproduction rate, people fully vaccinated (%), stringency index, people aged older than 65 (%), natural logarithm of gross domestic product per capita, extreme poverty rate (%), hospital beds (per thousand), diabetes prevalence (%), cardiovascular deaths (per 100,000), and life expectancy (years).
The dependent variable is the natural logarithm of the biweekly case fatality rate. Coefficients (coef.) are rounded up to the fourth digit after the decimal point. GDP, gross domestic product. Changes in the biweekly case fatality rate in percentage by single-unit increases in independent variables.