in vitro diagnostics industry: a pandemic case study'/>
Objectives This study evaluated the effectiveness of government epidemic control policies centered on diagnostic testing and examined their impact on the in vitro diagnostics (IVD) industry. It also analyzed the complex interplay among policy interventions, epidemic dynamics, and the IVD industry’s value chain to identify key leverage points for managing future public health crises. Methods: A system dynamics (SD) model calibrated using national data from the Republic of Korea simulated the interactions between epidemic progression and the IVD value chain. We conducted a scenario analysis encompassing 6 policy interventions: research and development (R&D) investment, public–private collaboration, regulatory easing, diagnostic test performance, testing intensity, and social distancing. Results: Policies promoting investment, public–private collaboration, and regulatory easing accelerated the market entry of diagnostics, thereby reducing infections and deaths. However, these interventions were associated with lower overall industry revenue, attributable to increased market competition and a reduced patient population. A critical trade-off was noted: although regulatory speed is advantageous, using low-sensitivity diagnostics substantially worsened public health outcomes. Aggressive testing strategies and stringent social distancing were also confirmed to be effective in reducing both infections and mortality. Conclusion: This study provides a strategic framework for understanding interactions between pandemic control policies and the IVD industry. Sustained pre-crisis investment in R&D, public–private networks, and public health infrastructure is essential for effective pandemic preparedness. During a crisis, policymakers must carefully manage the critical trade-off between regulatory speed and diagnostic quality to ensure that rapid responses do not compromise public health outcomes.
Objectives Mortality statistics during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic are crucial for the allocation of medical care resources and public health decision-making. This study was initiated to investigate the excess mortality among older adults during the pandemic. Our research focuses on 2 primary areas. First, we analyzed the cumulative excess mortality across all age groups to assess the global impact and specifically examined the top 20 countries with the highest mortality rates during the pandemic. Second, we explored excess deaths among older adults by categorizing data from the years 2020 and 2021 into age groups: 65–74, 75–84, and above 85.
Methods We analyzed data from the top 20 countries with the highest mortality rates globally, focusing on 3 components: all-cause mortality means, expected deaths mean, and excess deaths mean for both older men and women.
Results Although excess mortality is higher among older men and women across all 3 age groups (65–74, 75–84, and >85), the highest mean excess mortality was observed in women over the age of 85.
Conclusion The results indicate that the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 virus had a disproportionately intense impact on older women. We developed 2 types of statistical models using the data: a binomial distribution model and a correlation coefficient model, both considering the mean excess deaths in older men and women across these 3 age groups. Estimating the excess mortality among older adults will aid in the formulation of healthcare policies for this demographic.
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Methods This cross-sectional study of 57 patients with CAM was conducted over 6 months using a semi-structured standard questionnaire (the abbreviated World Health Organization Quality of Life questionnaire [WHO-BREF]) and a self-rated improvement (SRI) scale ranging from 0 to 9. Cut-off values of ≤52 and <7 were considered to indicate poor QOL and poor improvement, respectively. The correlations of QOL and SRI scores were evaluated using Spearman rho values.
Results In total, 27 patients (47.4%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 34.9%–60.1%) and 26 patients (45.6%; 95% CI, 33.4%–58.4%) had poor QOL and poor SRI scores, respectively. The overall median (interquartile range) QOL score was 52 (41–63). Headache (adjusted B, −12.3), localized facial puffiness (adjusted B , −16.4), facial discoloration (adjusted B, −23.4), loosening of teeth (adjusted B, −18.7), and facial palsy (adjusted B, −38.5) wer e significantly associated with the QOL score in patients with CAM.
Conclusion Approximately 1 in 2 patients with CAM had poor QOL and poor improvement. Various CAM symptoms were associated with QOL in these patients. Early recognition is the key to optimal treatment, improved outcomes, and improved QOL in patients with CAM.
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Objectives
We characterized and assessed public health measures, including intensive vaccination and antiviral treatment, implemented during the 2009 influenza pandemic in the Republic of Korea. Methods
A mathematical model for the 2009 influenza pandemic is formulated. The transmission rate, the vaccination rate, the antiviral treatment rate, and the hospitalized rate are estimated using the least-squares method for the 2009 data of the incidence curves of the infected, vaccinated, treated, and hospitalized. Results
The cumulative number of infected cases has reduced significantly following the implementation of the intensive vaccination and antiviral treatment. In particular, the intensive vaccination was the most critical factor that prevented severe outbreak. Conclusion
We have found that the total infected proportion would increase by approximately six times under the half of vaccination rates.
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Objectives
It is critical to implement effective multiple countermeasures to mitigate or retain the spread of pandemic influenza. We propose a mathematical pandemic influenza model to assess the effectiveness of multiple countermeasures implemented in 2009. Methods
Age-specific parameters, including the transmission rate, the proportion of asymptomatic individuals, the vaccination rate, the social distancing rate, and the antiviral treatment rate are estimated using the least-square method calibrated to the incidence data. Results
The multiple interventions (intensive vaccination, social distancing, antivrial treatment) were successfully implemented resulting in the dramatic reduction in the total number of incidence. Conclusion
The model output is sensitive to age-specific parameters and this leads to the fact that a more elaborate age group model should be developed and extensive further studies must be followed.
Since the 2006 Pandemic Influenza Preparedness and Response Plan according to the World Health Organization’s recommendation, the Republic of Korea has prepared and periodically evaluated the plan to respond to various public health crises including pandemic influenza. Korea has stockpiled 13,000,000 doses of antiviral drugs covering 26% of the Korean population and runs 519 isolated beds in 16 medical institutions. The division of public health crisis response in Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are in charge of responding to public health crises caused by emerging infectious diseases including severe acute respiratory syndrome, avian influenza human infection, and pandemic influenza. Its job description includes preparing for emerging infectious diseases, securing medical resources during a crisis, activating the emergency response during the crisis, and fortification of capabilities of public health personnel. It could evolve into a comprehensive national agency to deal with public health crisis based on the experience of previous national emerging infectious diseases.
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Objectives
In December 2010, there was an outbreak of acute febrile respiratory disease in many Korean military camps that were not geographically related. A laboratory analysis confirmed a number of these cases to be infected by the pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 (H1N1pdm09) virus. Because mass vaccination against H1N1pdm09 was implemented at the infected military camps eleven months ago, the outbreak areas in which both vaccinated and nonvaccinated individuals were well mixed, gave us an opportunity to evaluate the effectiveness of H1N1pdm09 vaccine through a retrospective cohort study design. Methods
A self-administered questionnaire was distributed to the three military camps in which the outbreak occurred for case detection, determination of vaccination status, and characterization of other risk factors. The overall response rate was 86.8% (395/455). Case was defined as fever (≥38 °C) with cough or sore throat, influenza-like illness (ILI), and vaccination status verified by vaccination registry. Crude vaccine effectiveness (VE) was calculated as “1 − attack rate in vaccinated individuals/attack rate in nonvaccinated individuals”, and adjusted VE was calculated as “1 – odds ratio” using logistic regression adjusted for potential confounding factor. A number of ILI definitions were used to test the robustness of the result. Results
The attack rate of ILI was 12.8% in register-verified vaccinated individuals and 24.0% in nonvaccinated individuals. The crude VE was thus calculated to be 46.8% [95% confidence interval (CI): 14.5–66.9]. The adjusted VE rate was 46.8% (95% CI: –9.4 to 74.1). Various combinations of ILI symptoms also showed similar VE rates. Conclusion
We evaluated the effectiveness of H1N1pdm09 vaccine in the 2010–2011 season in an outbreak setting. Although the result was not sensitive to any analytical method used and ILI case definition, the magnitude of effectiveness was lower than estimated in the 2009–2010 season.
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Monitoring Influenza in a Military Setting in Germany: Its Relevance in the 2023/2024 Season and Comparison to the Civil Population Julia Wenzel, Anna Leibinger, Ralf Dürrwald, Alexander Burgdorff, Daniela Cortnum, Leopold Böhm, Melanie Schmeil, Carsten Balczun, Svenja Liebler, Kai Kehe, Ralf Matthias Hagen, Manuela Andrea Hoffmann Military Medicine.2026; 191(3-4): e798. CrossRef
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Objectives
Our aim was to evaluate Korea’s Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Plan. Methods
We conducted a sensitivity analysis on the expected number of outpatients and hospital bed occupancy, with 1,000,000 parameter combinations, in a situation of pandemic influenza, using the mathematical simulation program InfluSim. Results
Given the available resources in Korea, antiviral treatment and social distancing must be combined to reduce the number of outpatients and hospitalizations sufficiently; any single intervention is not enough. The antiviral stockpile of 4–6% is sufficient for the expected eligible number of cases to be treated. However, the eligible number assumed (30% for severe cases and 26% for extremely severe cases) is very low compared to the corresponding number in European countries, where up to 90% of the population are assumed to be eligible for antiviral treatment. Conclusions
A combination of antiviral treatment and social distancing can mitigate a pandemic, but will only bring it under control for the most optimistic parameter combinations.
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