Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives

Temporal dynamics and forecasting of laboratory-confirmed human nontyphoidal Salmonella cases in Malaysia, 2018–2024: implications for surveillance: Hazlienor Mohd Hatta, Kamarul Imran Musa, Suhaily Mohd Hairon, Nik Mohd Hafiz Mohd Fuzi, Normaizura Mokhter, Norfaizah Sulaiman, Amutha Ayasamy, Rohani Ismail, Rohaidah Hashim, Jason Wei Jian Ng; Received March 25, 2026 Accepted August 9, 2026 Published online October 13, 2026; DOI: https://doi.org/10.24171/j.phrp.2026.0293 [Epub ahead of print]

Objectives
Nontyphoidal Salmonella (NTS) is a major cause of foodborne illness in Malaysia. Time-series modeling can characterize temporal patterns, although structural disruptions, nonlinear dynamics, and regional variability may affect model performance. This study aimed to characterize NTS seasonality in Malaysia, assess temporal stability, and explore model-based approaches for surveillance.
Methods
Monthly laboratory-confirmed human NTS cases from national laboratory surveillance databases for 2018–2024 were analyzed using time-series models, including autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) models with Fourier terms and an exploratory hybrid ARIMA–long short-term memory (LSTM) model. Interrupted time-series analysis was used to assess structural stability. Anomalies were identified using 95% prediction intervals, and stratified modeling assessed regional heterogeneity.
Results
NTS cases showed recurring annual seasonal patterns of moderate strength, with temporal variation over the study period. A significant decline occurred in March 2020 (β=−62.24 cases, p=0.001), followed by gradual recovery (β=2.71 cases/month, p<0.001), suggesting a marked coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic-related disruption and a subsequent positive post-intervention trend. The ARIMA(0,1,1)–Fourier (K=1) model outperformed conventional ARIMA, benchmark, and exponential smoothing models (root mean squared error, 42.9 vs. 51.37–108.79). The hybrid ARIMA–LSTM model provided modest additional improvement, particularly during high-case periods. Model-based anomaly detection identified deviations from expected patterns that coincided with documented outbreak-associated months. Regional heterogeneity in temporal dynamics suggested the need for surveillance strategies tailored to local epidemiological patterns.
Conclusion
Parsimonious models captured most temporal patterns in NTS cases, with only modest gains from more complex approaches. Context-specific modeling strategies, model-based anomaly detection, and tiered surveillance frameworks may support more proactive NTS surveillance in Malaysia.

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The role of artificial intelligence in managing COVID-19 and long COVID: a narrative review: Bikash Kanti Sarkar, Ambuj Kumar; Osong Public Health Res Perspect 2026;17(1):17-31.
Published online February 4, 2026; DOI: https://doi.org/10.24171/j.phrp.2025.0347

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Analysis of influenza-like illness trends in Saudi Arabia: a comparative study of statistical and deep learning techniques: Fathelrhman EL Guma; Osong Public Health Res Perspect 2025;16(3):270-284.
Published online June 12, 2025; DOI: https://doi.org/10.24171/j.phrp.2025.0080

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Immunoinformatics approach for design novel multi-epitope prophylactic and therapeutic vaccine based on capsid proteins L1 and L2 and oncoproteins E6 and E7 of human papillomavirus 16 and human papillomavirus 18 against cervical cancer: Nicholas Ryan, Sari Eka Pratiwi, Mardhia Mardhia, Ysrafil Ysrafil, Delima Fajar Liana, Mahyarudin Mahyarudin; Osong Public Health Res Perspect 2024;15(4):307-328.
Published online July 23, 2024; DOI: https://doi.org/10.24171/j.phrp.2024.0013

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Published online December 31, 2014; DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2014.10.003

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In Vitro Antibacterial Activity, Gas Chromatography–Mass Spectrometry Analysis of Woodfordia fruticosa Kurz. Leaf Extract and Host Toxicity Testing With In Vitro Cultured Lymphocytes From Human Umbilical Cord Blood: Debasmita Dubey, Rajashree Patnaik, Goutam Ghosh, Rabindra N. Padhy; Osong Public Health Res Perspect 2014;5(5):298-312.
Published online October 31, 2014; DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2014.08.001

Objectives
To locate a plant with suitable phytochemicals for use as antimicrobial agents to control multidrug-resistant (MDR) bacteria as a complementary medicine, without host toxicity as monitored through cultured lymphocytes from human umbilical cord blood.
Methods
The methanol crude leaf extract of the plant Woodfordia fruticosa was subjected to antimicrobial assay in vitro with nine pathogenic MDR bacteria from clinical samples. This was followed by bioassay-guided fractionation with seven non-polar to polar solvents, gas chromatography–mass spectrometry analysis of the n-butanol fraction, and monitoring of the host toxicity of the leaf extract with in vitro grown lymphocytes from human umbilical cord blood.
Results
The leaf extract of W. fruticosa had a controlling capacity for MDR bacteria. The minimum inhibitory concentration and minimum bactericidal concentration of the n-butanol fraction were < 1.89 mg/mL extract and 9.63 mg/mL extract, respectively. The gas chromatography–mass spectrometry spectrum of the n-butanol fraction confirmed the presence of 13 peaks of different compounds with retention times of 9.11 minutes, 9.72 minutes, 10.13 minutes, 10.78 minutes, 12.37 minutes, 12.93 minutes, 18.16 minutes, 21.74 minutes, 21.84 minutes, 5.96 minutes, 12.93 minutes, 24.70 minutes, and 25.76 minutes. The six leading compounds were: diethyl phthalate: <bold>IUPAC name:</bold> diethyl benzene-1,2-dicarboxylate; 5-methyl-2-(1-methylethyl) phenol: <bold>IUPAC name:</bold> 5-methyl-2-propan-2-ylphenol; (E )-3,7-dimethylocta-2,6-diene-1-thiol: <bold>IUPAC name:</bold> (2Z)-3,7-dimethylocta-2,6-diene-1-thiol; 2,6,10-dodecatrien-1-ol, 3,7,11-trimethyl-, (E,E ): <bold>IUPAC name:</bold> 2,6,10-dodecatrien-1-ol; 3,7,11-trimethyl-, (E,E); 2-methoxy-4-(2-propenyl) phenol: <bold>IUPAC name:</bold> 2-methoxy-4-[(1E)-prop-1-en-1-yl]phenol; hexadecanoic acid: <bold>IUPAC name:</bold> hexadecanoic acid.
Conclusion
The presence of antimicrobial compounds that are therapeutically potent against MDR bacteria was confirmed in W. fruticosa. The crude leaf extract showed no host toxicity with human lymphocytes; the n-butanol fraction of the extract was the most suitable bioactive fraction. The terpenes isolated were: 5-methyl-2-(1-methylethyl) phenol, 2-methoxy-4-(2-propenyl) phenol, 2,6-octadien-1-ol, 3,7-dimethyl-(E)-2,6-octadienal, 3,7-dimethylcyclohexanol, and cyclohexanol, 2-methylene-5-(1-methylethenyl) which were reported to have specifically antimicrobial activity.

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